I’d like to start by explaining exactly what I’m planning to do with this series.

This is a series of articles (and accompanying videos, given time) focusing on the concept of determining the “mana value” of certain stats and effects on Hearthstone cards, using the mana value as a metric.

When I say metric, I mean using mana in the same way you would measure the height of something in meters; the meter is an established standard, and by measuring something in terms of that standard you can have a uniform method of measuring anything.

This is definitely not about measuring the meta value or potential value of a card; both of those determined mostly by the standards of popular play, which is difficult to be objective about. The questions that kind of study would answer are things like the worth of running an extra BGH to counter handlock, or a Kezan Mystic to counter Echo Mage. Interesting things, yes, but not what I’m after; this series is about trying to be as objective as possible, entirely through statistics or data comparison. Through these things we can arrive at an approximate value of the stats of minions, or certain effects on cards; with the knowledge gained from this article, one would be able to measure whether changing Argent Commander from a 4/3 to a 4/2 was a statistically significant change to the card’s value (and therefore too hard or too light), or be able to create an entirely new card with an appropriately balanced effect for its mana value.

This is a study that has a rather hefty amount of variables, and there are certainly going to be outliers that test my ability to objectively measure things. I wholly expect to be stumped when attempting to break down

• why Magma Rager may have “good stats”, number wise, but is objectively one of the worst cards in the game
• why Injured Blademaster is nearly a Priest must-have, but no one else runs him
• how to judge random effects in any consistent manner
• and the value of card draw.

But I have theories, statistics, and data on my side, and where there’s a will, there’s a way. Besides, science-based studies like Randall Munroe’s what if? series, and MatPat’s Game Theory series both try to tackle extremely strange and difficult questions with a large amount of variables, and they both arrive at logical conclusions; many times, they can indeed answer the question.

So that’s what I’m going to do; break down the “true” (read: statisically validated) mana value of all possible effects on Hearthstone cards. The process will follow thusly

• Step 1: Break down minion stats (health and damage, in ratios, averages across certain mana values, averages across all cards). Only allowed to use “vanilla” minions; minions without effects or tribals.

• Step 2: Break down various standard card effects: taunt, divine shield, windfury, freezing and tribals (once again, using several methods of comparison and measurement), and also the value of card draw, to lead into the next topic

• Step 3: Break down “deal X damage”, “draw X cards”, and health/damage bonuses; single target first, then aoe. Again, only using standard creatures; (this will be a little difficult, because classes aren’t allowed, which will be explained later)

• Step 4: Break down the cost of effect parameters; deathrattle, enrage, battlecry, tribal requirements, minion requirements, etc. (these can be negative, positive, or effect the value of the card as a whole)

• Step 5: Use the measurement methods established in the 4 previous articles to determine a “normal card” value for all class cards; after doing so, determine the “class modifiers” certain effects have (i.e. figure out why Darkbomb and Frostbolt both deal the same damage, and are both good cards, but Frostbolt is objectively better; to make them equal Warlock must weigh minion damage at more value than Mage does, which would make sense because of the Mage’s hero power) This is going to be the fun part, because I have to be extremely careful to stay objective at all costs.

• Step 6: Use the “class modifiers” obtained in the previous article to re-weigh all cards for each individual class. This is going to be the other fun part, because this is where I get to essentially show off all the data I’ve collected.

This is going to be incredibly difficult, and I’ve identified a lot of things that are going to get in the way of arriving at statistically significant data; the most significant thing among them being small sample size. This is why I’ve grouped many of the topics together, so I can use a system of equations to use the various cards that have multiple effects to break down all of them at once. Math is my ally here.

I also won’t post any of the articles until I’ve run them by a plethora of both Hearthstone players and mathematicians so I know all of my statements are a fair degree of valid.

This will be an extremely difficult, and extremely taxing, series of articles; but they interest me, and once something has piqued my interest, it takes a lot to get me to stop pursuing it.  Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for further entries in this series!Pt 2!